Contraction or expansion? Modeling the response of South American Hedeoma (Lamiaceae) species to future climate shifts

Marina L. Arce; Federico O.  Robbiati; Patricia Peralta

doi:10.30550/j.lil/2479

Autores

Marina L. Arce Escuela Superior de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Morón. Buenos Aires, Argentina. https://orcid.org/0009-0009-3064-5655
Federico O. Robbiati Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal, CONICET - Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Córdoba, Argentina. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6841-1872
Patricia Peralta Escuela Superior de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Morón. Buenos Aires, Argentina. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1099-4275

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30550/j.lil/2479

Palavras-chave:

Climate, endemism, MaxEnt, soil

Resumo

Climate change is driving significant shifts in the geographic distribution of plant species, particularly affecting those with medicinal and cultural value. In this study, we modeled the current and future (2070) potential distributions of four South American Hedeoma species (H. mandoniana, H. medium, H. polygalifolia, and the micro-endemic H. teyucuarensis) using MaxEnt and three climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Our results reveal heterogeneous responses: H. mandoniana is projected to undergo a significant range contraction (up to 38%) and an upslope displacement in the Andes, driven by elevation and clay content. In contrast, H. medium showed a robust expansion potential (42-59%) toward Uruguay, likely favored by greater climate stability and its edaphic generalist nature. The micro-endemic H. teyucuarensis species exhibited high vulnerability due to its extremely narrow thermal tolerance and dependence on specific sandy soils in Misiones, Argentina. The present study emphasizes that niche breadth and soil specificity are critical determinants of climate change resilience. The Misiones Province Law XVI–No. 185 declares Hedeoma teyucuarensis a “Natural Monument and of Public Interest” for the purposes of preservation, conservation, and reproduction. We propose urgent in situ conservation priority for H. teyucuarensis, currently under IUCN assessment, to mitigate the risks posed by environmental shifts and overexploitation.

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