Distribución potencial de Kinosternon cora (Testudines: Kinosternidae) e implicaciones para su conservación

Jesús Alberto Loc-Barragán; Héctor Alexis Castro-Bastidas

doi:10.30550/j.azl/2254

Autores/as

Jesús Alberto Loc-Barragán Ciencia Conservación y Desarrollo de las Comunidades (CICODEC) A.C., Tepic 63066, Nayarit, México. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6851-054X
Héctor Alexis Castro-Bastidas Centro de Estudios "Justo Sierra" (CEJUS), Badiraguato 80600, Sinaloa, México https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6448-5639

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30550/j.azl/2254

Palabras clave:

Especie endémica, MaxEnt, Nayarit, Sinaloa, Tortugas de agua dulce

Resumen

Kinosternon cora, una tortuga endémica de la Planicie Costera del Pa-
cífico en Sinaloa y Nayarit, México, está clasificada como “En Peligro”
debido a su distribución restringida, pérdida de hábitat y recolección
ilegal. En este estudio modelamos su distribución potencial usando
MaxEnt y 48 registros de presencia verificados, analizando variables
bioclimáticas (temperatura media anual, rango diurno de temperatura,
temperatura del trimestre más cálido, precipitación de los trimestres
más seco y frío). El modelo LQPTH/?3 mostró alto rendimiento (AUC =
0.970, pROC = 1.51, p = 0.001), prediciendo 3,548.27 km² de hábitat
adecuado con un 85.9% de superposición con la distribución conocida.
La temperatura media anual (29.5–30.0°C) y la baja precipitación en la
temporada seca (<100 mm) fueron los predictores más influyentes,
contribuyendo 41.64% y 22.2% al modelo, respectivamente, con rangos
óptimos de temperatura diurna (10.0–16.0°C) y temperaturas del trimes-
tre más cálido (28.5–30.0°C), reflejando la dependencia de humedales
térmicamente estables. La precipitación en el trimestre más frío no tuvo
efecto significativo. Estos resultados identifican áreas climáticamente
adecuadas para K. cora, destacando la necesidad de proteger hábitats
acuáticos y semiacuáticos amenazados por la degradación de humeda-
les y el comercio ilegal. Las áreas predichas sin registros sugieren zonas
para muestreos dirigidos para refinar el conocimiento de la distribución.
Este estudio apoya los esfuerzos de conservación al identificar áreas
prioritarias para la protección del hábitat y recomendar la integración
de variables no bioclimáticas, como la cobertura vegetal, para refinar
modelos de distribución futuros.

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